Feldman's Faves: April 7, 2025

GOOD MORNING EVERYONE

Well, “Liberation Day” has come and gone. Who feels liberated now????

But putting that aside, what an incredible weekend for sports, capped by OV breaking Gretzky’s 31 year record. Truly remarkable.

I am very happy that we are back to Thirsty Thursdays (thank you, Alex) and that we were able to use this opportunity celebrate Christina’s engagement. I think we can all agree that the cake at this wedding will be nothing short of spectacular.

It’s hard to believe we are in the middle of our final Articling Student rotation of the year. Annie and Griffin are off to a busy start but please consider them for your files. The more exposure they get to all of you, the better.

Finally, I would like to formally welcome Melissa to the section. So please introduce yourselves to her if you have not done so already AND you can wish her a happy birthday (it’s on Tuesday) week when you do.

This week’s theme centres on the ideas of leaders and leadership.

DESTINED FOR WAR- CAN AMERICA AND CHINA ESCAPE THUCYDIDES’ TRAP -  By Graham Allison – This book was published during Trump’s first term and there was a general view that a rising China and a declining USA could co-exist and, while not avoid conflict, avoid an all out war.  Notwithstanding how much things have changed (including the aforementioned arrival of “Liberation Day”), I do believe that this quasi-peaceful outcome is still very likely.  In his (now) classic study, Graham Allison looks at the rise and fall of great powers and asks if such change requires outright war, as was the case with the Peloponnesian Wars between Sparta and Athens (and as described by Thucydides – hence his trap) or is there another way. Looking back at history it appears that war is often a key component in a power shift f this nature but is not always the case and as full scale modern warfare becomes more destructive and the world remains interdependent there may be a different path. As we are now in the second Trump administration with a leader that is looking to shut down global trade and is more antagonistic to both its allies and its adversaries the answer is less obvious. So there are a number of ways that the worst case scenario can be avoided, but it is not a guarantee. As one reviewer notes, “A pertinent study of the relationship between the United States and China, in which “a rapidly ascending China [is] challeng[ing] America’s accustomed predominance.” Using as point of departure the ancient Greek historian Thucydides’ explanation for the start of the Peloponnesian War (“It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable”), Allison (Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World, 2012, etc.), the director of Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, refers to the “natural, inevitable discombobulation that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power”—in this case, China versus the U.S. First, the author establishes what China and its ambitious president, Xi Jinping, are after—namely, using geoeconomic strength and manipulation to become the most powerful nation in the world. Indeed, Allison informs his surprised students, China has already surpassed the U.S. as the “manufacturing powerhouse of the world” and also in other areas such as infrastructure, military spending, and investments in science, technology, engineering and mathematics. China uses incrementally deployed instruments of “soft power” to establish mastery over its trading partners, employing nicely Sun Tzu’s dictum from The Art of War that “the highest victory is to defeat the enemy without ever fighting.” Relying on the work of the Thucydides Project Harvard, Allison draws on numerous examples over the last 500 years of the violent clashes between upstarts and established powers—e.g., the imperial ambitions of the U.S. under Theodore Roosevelt in challenging Spain at the turn of the 19th century and the world war sparked by competition between Germany and Britain in 1914. While the author offers numerous examples of how a fatal confrontation could erupt between the U.S. and China (e.g., the move for independence by Taiwan), he closes with a set of calming strategies to defuse tensions. A timely, reasoned treatise by a keen observer and historian.”  I think we should be OK but I also think that just as a precaution, it might be useful to start enrolling your children and grandchildren in Mandarin lessons…Here’s a good review from the NYT- https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/15/books/review/everything-under-the-heavens-howard-french-destined-for-war-graham-allison.html

WorkLife with Adam Grant - Should leaders be feared or loved? with historian Niall Ferguson – I believe it was Michael Scott once said something along the lines that he wanted his employees to love how much they fear him or fear how much they love him, which gets to the crux of the debate in this PODCAST. Adam Grant from Wharton is all about empathetic leadership and Niall Fergusson is much more “old school” (although maybe this is approach is becoming the new, “new school”…). Even though they look at issues very differently, when it comes to leaders they both get to the place where respect over love rules but you’d never know it. These are two very sharp brains that you should hear. Here’s an excerpt from the PODCAST itself, “Niall Ferguson is an intellectual provocateur. His specialty is counterfactual history — imagining how events could have unfolded differently. And he and Adam disagree on nearly everything. In this episode, Niall and Adam have a vigorous debate about the vital qualities of effective leadership in government, sports, business, and education.”: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/worklife-with-adam-grant/id1346314086?i=1000674755686

Thank you for you ongoing participation and engagement.

Remember to stay safe and to docket daily.

Jon